My research aims at understanding governance of human-environment interactions in the context of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, with a particular focus on coastal systems.
Specifically, I am interested in collective action problems related to adaptation such as the provisioning of collective goods that protect against climate hazards (e.g., dikes to protect against flooding) and the management of resources that are threaten by climate change (e.g., water, land and infrastructure).
I am also interested in coastal risk from an integrated perspective. In this context I co-ordinate the development of the DIVA Modelling Framework (Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment). DIVA is a global, integrated model of coastal systems developed collaboratively by a number of European research institutions including Southampton University, Kiel University, University of Sussex, Cambridge University and the Global Climate Forum. DIVA assess biophysical and socio-economic consequences of sea-level rise and socio-economic development taking into account coastal erosion (both direct and indirect), coastal flooding (including rivers), wetland change and salinity intrusion into deltas and estuaries as well as adaptation in terms of raising dikes and nourishing beaches.
Board member of the Global Climate Forum (GCF), Berlin, Germany
2014 – present
Scientific Steering Committee of the Integrated Risk Governance Project, one of the core research programmes of the the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) currently in transition to Future Earth
GREEN-WIN (Green growth and win-win strategies for sustainable climate action), funded by the European Commission (800k Euro). GREEN-WIN aims to advance the scientific understanding of the synergies and trade-offs between mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development with a particular emphasis on developing and critically assessing the feasibility of win-win and green growth strategies. I coordinate this project and contribute to its coastal component.
2015 – 2017
Climate risk governance in the Yangtze River Delta, funded by Chinese State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University (60k Euro). I lead this project.
ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project), funded by BMBF (60k Euro). ISI-MIP is a community-driven modelling effort providing cross-sectoral global impact assessments and impact model comparisons, based on common climate and socio-economic scenarios. I lead the infrastructure component of this project and apply the DIVA Model to assess coastal impacts.
2011 – 2014
PROVIA (Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation) Guidance, funded by UNEP (90k Euro). PROVIA is a global initiative which aims to provide direction and coherence at the international level for research on climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA). Towards this end, PROVIA is revising the IPCC Technical Guidelines (1994) and the UNEP Handbook (1996) to produce guidance on tools and research methodologies for VIA. I am the Coordinating Lead Author of this guidance.
Costs of Adaptation to Rising Coastal Water Levels for People’s Republic of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, funded by the Asian Development Bank (20k Euro). I have done the simulations of costs and impacts.
Economic Analysis of Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in Senegal and Gambia, funded by the World Bank (30k Euro). The project assessed coastal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation using the DIVA Model for Senegal and Gambia.
Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Areas of India, funded by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH (40k Euro). The project developed a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of Indian States to climate change.
2009 – 2010
Vulnerability Mapping, funded by European Topic Centers at the German and European Environmental Agency (20k Euro). An assessment of the vulnerabilities of several European sectors was carried out and incorporated in the 2010 State of the Environment Report published by the European Environmental Agency. I carried out the coastal assessment.
Preliminary assessment and road-map for the elaboration of Climate
Change Vulnerability Indicators at regional level, funded by European Commission’s DG Environment (Reference: ENV.G.1/ETU/2008/0092r). The project conducted a review of vulnerability indicators from a theoretical and methodological perspective and developed and applied a process for the construction of vulnerability indicators.
2008 – 2011
CLIMATECOST (the Full Cost of Climate Change), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the 7th Framework Programme. The project is a study of the economics of climate change to inform policy on long-term targets, the economic costs of inaction, and the costs and benefits of adaptation. The project is quantifying the costs of climate change impacts, as compared with the costs and benefits of adaptation. I was involved in the coastal work.
2005 – 2009
ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies – Supporting European Climate Policy), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the Sixth Framework Programme (Project Reference: 18476). I co-lead the ADAM Workpackage A1 that developed a formal framework of CCIVA concepts, conducted a meta-analysis of European CCIVA studies, explored how barriers to adaptation could be overcome through social learning, and developed a Digital Adaptation Compendium.
NeWater (New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the Sixth Framework Programme (contract no 511179). I was involved in a case study of range land management in Lesotho and in comparing and improving indicator and model-based methods for assessing water vulnerability.
2001 – 2004
DINAS-COAST (Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Sea-Level Rise), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the 5th Framework Programme (Contract No. EVK2-2000-22024). The project developed the DIVA model. I coordinated the development.
Bisaro, A. and J. Hinkel (2016). Governance of social dilemmas in climate change adaptation. In: Nature Climate Change 6.4, pp. 354–359. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2936.
Spencer, T., M. Schuerch, R. J. Nicholls, J. Hinkel, D. Lincke, A. Vafeidis, R. Reef, L. McFadden, and S. Brown (2016). Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model. In: Global and Planetary Change 139, pp. 15 –30. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.018.
Thiel, A., C. Schleyer, H. Jochen, M. Schlüter, K. Hagedorn, S. Bisaro, I. Boboyonov, and A. Hamidov (2016). Transferring Williamson’s discriminating alignment to the analysis of environmental governance of social-ecological interdependence. In: Ecological Economics. In press.
Tol, R. S. J., R. J. Nicholls, S. Brown, J. Hinkel, A. T. Vafeidis, T. Spencer, and M. Schuerch (2016). Comment on ‘The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment’. en. In: Environmental and Resource Economics, pp. 1–4. DOI: 10.1007/s10640-015-9993-y.
Wolff, C., A. T. Vafeidis, D. Lincke, C. Marasmi, and J. Hinkel (2016). Effects of Scale and Input Data on Assessing the Future Impacts of Coastal Flooding: An Application of DIVA for the Emilia-Romagna Coast. In: Coastal Ocean Processes, p. 41. DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2016.00041.
Bisaro, A., J. Hinkel, and R. Swart (2015). Frontiers of solution-oriented adaptation research. In: Regional Environmental Change. Published online: 20 January 2015. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-015-0766-5.
Hinkel, J., M. C. Cox, M. Schlüter, C. Binder, and T. Falk (2015a). A diagnostic procedure for applying the SES framework in diverse cases. In: Ecology and Society 20.1, p. 32. DOI: 10.5751/ES-07023-200132.
Hinkel, J., C. C. Jaeger, R. J. Nicholls, J. Lowe, O. Renn, and S. Peijun (2015b). Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management. In: Nature Climate Change 5. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2505.
Hinkel, J., A. Bisaro, and R. Swart (2015c). Towards a diagnostic adaptation science. In: Regional Environmental Change. Published online: 10 September 2015. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-015-0850-x.
Mcleod, E., B. Szuster, J. Hinkel, E. L. Tompkins, N. Marshall, T. Downing, S. Wongbusarakum, A. Patwardhan, M. Hamza, C. Anderson, S. Bharwani, L. Hansen, and P. Rubinoff (2015). Conservation Organizations Need to Consider Adaptive Capacity: Why Local Input Matters. en. In: Conservation Letters. DOI: 10.1111/conl.12210.
Tuckett, D., A. Mandel, D. Mangalagiu, A. Abramson, J. Hinkel, K. Katsikopoulos, A. Kirman, T. Malleret, I. Mozetic, P. Ormerod, R. E. Smith, T. Venturini, and A. Wilkinson (2015). Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda. In: Critical Review. Published online: 11 Jun 2015, pp. 1–30. DOI: 10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078.
Arnell, N. W., S. Brown, S. Gosling, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. Lowe, T. Osborn, R. J. Nicholls, and P. Zelazowski (2014a). Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact. In: Climatic Change. Published online: 21 January 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7.
Arnell, N. W., S. Brown, S. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. Lowe, R. Nicholls, T. Osborn, T. Osborne, G. Rose, P. Smith, T. Wheeler, and P. Zelazowski (2014b). The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment. In: Climatic Change. Published online: 11 November 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2.
Brown, S., R. J. Nicholls, S. Hanson, G. Brundrit, J. A. Dearing, M. E. Dickson, S. L. Gallop, S. Gao, I. D. Haigh, J. Hinkel, and et al. (2014b). Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation. In: Nature Climate Change 4.9, 752–755. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2344.
Hinkel, J. and A. Bisaro (2014a). A review and classification of methods for climate change adaptation. In: WIREs Climate Change 6.2, pp. 171–188. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.322.
— (2014b). Methodological choices in problem-oriented adaptation research: a diagnostic framework. In: Regional Environmental Change. Published online: 14 September 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0682-0.
Hinkel, J., D. Lincke, A. T. Vafeidis, M. Perrette, R. J. Nicholls, R. S. J. Tol, B. Marzeion, X. Fettweis, C. Ionescu, and A. Levermann (2014a). Coastal flood damage and adaptation cost under 21st century sea-level rise. In: Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences 111.9, 3292––3297. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222469111.
Hinkel, J., P. Bots, and M. Schlüter (2014b). Enhancing the Ostrom social-ecological systems framework through formalization. In: Ecology and Society 19.3. DOI: 10.5751/ES-06475-190351.
Schlüter, M., J. Hinkel, P. Bots, and R. Arlinghaus (2014). Application of the Ostrom (2009) framework for model-based analysis of the dynamics of social-ecological systems. In: Ecology and Society 19.1. DOI: 10.5751/ES-05782-190136.
Tonmoy, F. N., A. El-Zein, and J. Hinkel (2014). Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using indicators: a meta-analysis of the literature. In: WIREs Climate Change 5.6, 775––792. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.314.
Arnell, N. W., J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, B. Lloyd-Hughes, R. J. Nicholls, T. J. Osborn, T. M. Osborne, G. A. Rose, P. Smith, and R. F. Warren (2013). A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. In: Nature Climate Change 3, pp. 512–519. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1793.
Binder, C. R., J. Hinkel, C. Pahl-Wostl, and P. Bots (2013). Comparison of frameworks for analysing social-ecological systems. In: Ecology and Society 18.4, p. 26. DOI: 10.5751/ES-05551-180426.
Brown, S., R. Nicholls, J. Lowe, and J. Hinkel (2013b). Spatial variations in sea level rise and global impacts: An application of DIVA. In: Climatic Change. Published online. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y.
Hinkel, J., R. J. Nicholls, R. S. Tol, Z. B. Wang, J. M. Hamilton, G. Boot, A. T. Vafeidis, L. McFadden, A. Ganopolski, and R. J. Klein (2013a). A Global Analysis of Coastal Erosion of Beaches due to Sea-level Rise: An Application of DIVA. In: Global andPlanetary Change 111. In press, pp. 150–158. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002.
Hinkel, J., D. P. van Vuuren, R. J. Nicholls, and R. J. T. Klein (2013b). The effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal impacts in the 21st century. In: Climatic Change 117, 783–794. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0564-8.
Koerth, J., A. T. Vafeidis, J. Hinkel, and H. Sterr (2013). What motivates coastal households to adapt pro-actively to sea-level rise and increasing flood risk? In: Regional Environmental Change 13.4, pp. 897–909. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-012-0399-x.
Wolf, S., J. Hinkel, C. Ionescu, M. Hofman, S. Bisaro, D. Linke, and R. J. T. Klein (2013). Clarifying vulnerability definitions and assessments using formalisation. In: International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 5.1, pp. 54–70. DOI: 10.1108/17568691311299363.
Hinkel, J., S. Brown, L. Exner, R. J. Nicholls, A. T. Vafeidis, and A. S. Kebede (2012). Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. In: Regional Environmental Change 12, pp. 207–224. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-011-0249-2.
Hinkel, J. (2011b). “Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: towards a clarification of the science policy interface. In: Global Environmental Change 21, pp. 198–208. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.08.002.
Hofmann, M., J. Hinkel, and M. Wrobel (2011). Classifying knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe for informing adaptation research and decision-making: a conceptual meta-analysis. In: Global EnvironmentalChange 21, pp. 1106–1116. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.03.011.
Lass, W., A. Haas, J. Hinkel, and C. Jaeger (2011). Avoiding the Avoidable: Towards a European Heat Waves Risk Governance. In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2.1, pp. 1–14. DOI: 10.1007/s13753-011-0001-z.
Nicholls, R. J., N. Marinova, J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, P. Vellinga, D. de Gusmao, J. Hinkel, and R. S. J. Tol (2011b). Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a “beyond 4 degree world” in the 21st Century. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 369, pp. 161–181. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0291.
Vuuren, D. P. van, M. Isaac, Z. W. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, T. Barker, P. Criqui, F. Berkhout, H. Hilderink, J. Hinkel, A. Hof, A. Kitous, T. Kram, R. Mechler, and S. Scrieciu (2011). The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. In: Global Environmental Change 21, pp. 575–591. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003.
Bisaro, A., S. Wolf, and J. Hinkel (2010a). Framing climate vulnerability and adaptation at multiple levels: Addressing climate risks or institutional barriers in Lesotho. In: Climate and Development 2.2, pp. 161–175. DOI: 10.3763/cdev.2010.0037.
Bisaro, A., J. Hinkel, and N. Kranz (2010b). Multilevel water, biodiversity and climate adaptation governance: evaluating adaptive management in Lesotho. In: Environmental Science and Policy 13.7, pp. 637–647. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2010.08.004.
Hinkel, J., R. J. Nicholls, A. Vafeidis, R. S. J. Tol, and T. Avagianou (2010). Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5.7, pp. 1–17. DOI: 10.1007/s11027-010-9237-y.
Kranz, N., T. Menniken, and J. Hinkel (2010). Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play? In: Environmental Science and Policy 13.7, pp. 648–659. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2010.09.003.
Mcleod, E., B. Poulter, J. Hinkel, E. Reyes, and R. Salm (2010a). Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications. In: Ocean & Coastal Management 53, pp. 507–517. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2010.06.009.
Mcleod, E., J. Hinkel, A. T. Vafeidis, R. J. Nicholls, N. Harvey, and R. Salm (2010b). Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle. In: SustainabilityScience 5.2, pp. 207–222. DOI: 10.1007/s11625-010-0105-1.
Miller, F., H. Osbahr, E. Boyd, F. Thomalla, S. Bharwani, G. Ziervogel, B. Walker, J. Birkmann, S. van der Leeuw, J. Rockström, J. Hinkel, T. Downing, C. Folke, and D. R. Nelson (2010). Resilience and Vulnerability: Complementary or conflicting concepts? In: Ecology and Society 15.3.
Hinkel, J. (2009). PIAM: A modular approach to integrated assessment modelling. In: Environmental Modelling and Software 24, pp. 739–748. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.005.
Hinkel, J. and R. J. T. Klein (2009). Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool. In: GlobalEnvironmental Change 19.3, pp. 384–395. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.03.002.
Ionescu, C., R. J. T. Klein, J. Hinkel, K. S. K. Kumar, and R. Klein (2009). Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change. In: Environmental Modelling andAssessment 14, pp. 1–16. DOI: 10.1007/s10666-008-9179-x.
Vafeidis, A. T., R. J. Nicholls, L. McFadden, R. S. J. Tol, J. Hinkel, T. Spencer, P. S. Grashoff, G. Boot, and R. J. T. Klein (2008). A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. In: Journal of Coastal Research 24.4, pp. 917–924. DOI: 10.2112/06-0725.1.
Warren, R., S. de la Nava Santos, N. W. Arnell, M. Bane, T. Barker, C. Barton, R. Ford, H.-M. Füssel, R. K. S. Hankin, J. Hinkel, R. Klein, C. Linstead, J. Kohler, T. D. Mitchell, T. J. Osborn, H. Pan, S. C. B. Raper, G. Riley, H. J. Schellnhuber, S. Winne, et al. (2008). Erratum to “Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change” [Environ Model Softw 23(5) (2008) 592–610]. In: Environmental Modelling & Software 23.9, pp. 1215–1216. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.09.015.
Hinkel, J. (2005a). DIVA: an iterative method for building modular integrated models. In: Advances in Geosciences 4, pp. 45–50.
Koerth, J., J. Hinkel, S. Bisaro, A. T. Vafeidis, and H. Sterr (2014). Taking on the challenge of household-level adaptation: A question of reliance on institutional capacity? In: Social dynamics of adaptation to a changing climate in coastal regions. An interdisciplinary perspective on findings from KLIMZUG-Projects. Ed. by G. Martinez, H.-J. Meier, and P. Fröhle. München: Oekom Verlag.
Wong, P. P., I. J. Losada, J.-P. Gattuso, J. Hinkel, A. Khattabi, K. McInnes, Y. Saito, and A. Sallenger (2014). Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts and Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ed. by M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, and C. E. Hanson. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 315–356.
Brown, S., R. J. Nicholls, C. D. Woodroffe, S. Hanson, J. Hinkel, A. S. Kebede, B. Neumann, and A. T. Vafeidis (2013). Sea-level rise impact and responses: A global perspective. In: Coastal hazards. Ed. by C. Finkl. Springer, pp. 117–149.
Brown, S., R. J. Nicholls, A. K. Pardaens, J. A. Lowe, J. A. Vafeidis, J. Hinkel, and P. Watkiss (2012). Impacts & strategic responses to rising sea levels in the European Union. In: Comprehensive Flood Risk Management. Ed. by F. Klijn and T. Schweckendiek. London, UK: Talyor and Francis Group, pp. 1139–1147.
Hinkel, J. (2011a). Climate impacts: from numbers to stories. In: Reframing the Problem of Climate Change: From Zero Sum Game to Win-Win Solutions. Ed. by C. C. Jaeger, K. Hasselmann, G. Leipold, D. Mangalagiu, and J. D. Tabara. Oxford, UK and New York, USA & Canada: Earthscan, pp. 35–53.
Hinkel, J., S. Bisaro, T. Downing, M. E. Hofmann, K. Lonsdale, D. Mcevoy, and J. D. Tabara (2009). Learning to adapt. Narratives of decision makers adapting to climate change. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 113–134.
Neufeldt, H., E. Jochem, J. Hinkel, D. Huitema, E. Massey, P. Watkiss, D. McEvoy, T. Rayner, A. Hof, K. Lonsdale, T. Barker, A. Held, M. Hulme, U. Reiter, H. Turton, D. P. van Vuuren, and S. E. Werners (2009). Climate policy and inter-linkages between adaptation and mitigation. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 3–30.
Russel, D., A. Haxeltine, D. Huitema, M. Nilsson, J. Hinkel, and T. Rayner (2009). Climate change appraisal in the EU: current trends and future challenges. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 31–53.
Vuuren, D. P. van, M. Isaac, Z. W. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, T. Barker, P. Criqui, N. Bauer, F. Berkhout, H. Hilderink, J. Hinkel, A. Hof, A. Kitous, T. Kram, R. Mechler, and S. Scrieciu (2009). Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 54–86.
Hinkel, J. (2008a). A framework for analysing methodologies of vulnerability assessments. In: Environmental Vulnerability Assessment. Ed. by A. G. Patt, D. Schröter, A. C. de la Vega-Leinert, and R. J. T. Klein. London, UK: Earthscan.
Klein, R. J. T. and J. Hinkel (2008). The DINAS-COAST project: developing a tool for the dynamic and interactive assessment of coastal vulnerability. In: Environmental Vulnerability Assessment. Ed. by A. G. Patt, D. Schröter, A. C. de la Vega-Leinert, and R. J. T. Klein. London, UK: Earthscan.
Hinkel, J. and R. J. T. Klein (2007). Integrating knowledge for assessing coastal vulnerability. In: Managing Coastal Vulnerability. Ed. by L. M. Fadden, R. J. Nicholls, and E. Penning-Rowsell. London, UK: Earthscan, pp. 61–78.