Global Climate Forum e.V.
Neue Promenade 6
10178 Berlin, Germany
Thomas van der Pol completed the MSc programme Management, Economics and Consumer studies at Wageningen University, the Netherlands in 2009. He defended his PhD thesis on climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction at the same university in 2015. He worked as an economic policy researcher at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) for two years. He is currently involved in the SEASCApe Baltic project of the Adaptation and Social Learning process at GCF. We provide a systematic review of the literature on decision analytic methods that have been applied to coastal flood risk management problems. We aim to improve and apply a stylized flood impact assessment model and decision analytic methods to develop flexible adaptation strategies for the German Baltic Sea coast.
The project is about storm surges, sea-level rise and adaptation responses of the German Baltic coast // Work package 3: Coastal adaption decision-making under deep uncertainty
The project addresses the urgent need to co-develop coastal climate services tailored to the needs and practices of coastal users.
Hinkel, J., Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Lambert, E., Le Cozannet, G., Lowe, J., McInnes, K.L., Nicholls, R.J., van der Pol, T.D., van de Wal, R. (2019) Meeting user needs for sea level rise information: a decision analysis perspective. Earth’s Future, 7: 320-337
van der Pol, T.D., Hinkel, J. (2019) Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2359-z
van der Pol, T.D., Gabbert, S, Weikard, H.-P., van Ierland, E. C., Hendrix, E. M. T. (2017) A minimax regret analysis of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and emerging information. Environmental & Resource Economics, 68(4): 1087–1109
van der Pol, T.D., van Ierland, E.C., Gabbert, S., Weikard, H-P., Hendrix, E.M.T. (2015) Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change. Journal of Environmental Management, 154: 40-47
van der Pol, T.D., van Ierland, E.C., Weikard, H.-P. (2014) Optimal dike investments under uncertainty and learning about increasing water levels. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 7(4): 308-318
van der Pol, T.D., Weikard, H.-P., van Ierland, E.C. (2012) Can altruism stabilise international climate agreements? Ecological Economics, 81: 112 – 120
van der Pol, T.D. (2015) Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, ISBN 978-94-6257-437-3