The history of Europe is strongly and often dramatically interwoven with that of the Balkans. Presently, the nexus between Europe and the Balkans is acquiring new relevance due to sluggish growth and rising regional disparities across Europe, to diverging national interests exacerbated by the migrant crisis, and to the prospect of the Chinese “one belt, one road” initiative reaching South-East Europe. This report investigates the possibility of a Green Corridor linking Europe and the Balkans through a multimodal infrastructure for the transport of people, goods, energy and information. As a first step, the present background paper looks at the Western Balkans in this perspective. We show that this region is faced with enormous development challenges, including a population whose skills hardly match the needs and opportunities of the present world economy, a very low, sometimes even negative savings rate, weak and sometimes dysfunctional institutions, and more. We then show that infrastructure investments are badly needed in the Western Balkans, be it for transport of people and goods, of information and of electricity. Next, we survey the considerable toolbox that the EU has developed to intensify cooperation with this part of the Balkans. Against this background, two things become quite clear. First, the Green Corridor idea looks both necessary and feasible. And second, to really make a difference, this kind of infrastructure investment can and should target the greater Balkans, including not only the Western Balkans, but also Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Along these lines, it can offer the Western Balkans a badly needed future of stability and prosperity.
This study shows that an investment-oriented climate policy based on credible climate goals can overcome the increasingly threatening stagnation of the European economy. Since other strategies to tackle the crisis are noticeably losing their plausibility, a constructive debate on this issue is urgently needed. Read more
New working paper in ESRB report
Is the international financial system at risk, if policy and markets react too late and too abruptly to climate change? A report, published yesterday by the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) “Too late, too sudden: Transition to a low-carbon economy and systemic risk” tries to find answers to this question.
Earlier analyses of the British Central Bank and the G20 Financial Stability Board have already raised this issue. In parallel, the “divestment” movement, which calls for the withdrawal of public and private funds from coal, oil and gas companies has further gained momentum worldwide. Read more
Climate and energy policy are faced with the challenge of having to deal with interrelated uncertainties. In risk research, such uncertainties are referred to as integrated risks. In this context, the concept of risk is neutral in value and includes both positive futures (known in technical jargon as upside risks) and negative futures (downside risks). The focus of risk research is in particular on possible synergy effects between risks as well as questions on how to make sense of such synergies and which institutional structures are suitable for this purpose. Integrated Risk Governance is the research field in which these questions are dealt with. A key product of our research is the Integrated Risk Toolbox, which we designed for the BMBF-funded research project “Investment and the Energy Transition”. It entails different methods that can help to assess integrated risks such as Bayesian Risk Management (BRM) or stakeholder-based science approaches.
Weblink to the toolbox: https://globalclimateforum.org/fileadmin/ecf-documents/pdf/Integrated_Risk_Toolbox_31.3.2015.pdf
The Climate Strategies – CDKN publication with the chapter of Carlo C. Jaeger is now published.
Coastal regions under threat from climate change and sea-level rise need to tackle the more immediate threats of human-led and other non-climatic changes, according to a team of international scientists.
The team of 27 scientists from five continents, led by Dr Sally Brown at the University of Southampton, reviewed 24 years of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments (the fifth and latest set being published in 2013 and 2014).They focused on climate change and sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone, and examined ways of how to better manage and cope with climate change. Read more
From Zero Sum Game to Win-Win Solutions – edited by Carlo Jaeger, Klaus Hasselmann, Gerd Leipold, Diana Mangalagiu and Joan David Tàbara
This book provides an evaluation of the science and policy debates on climate change and offers a reframing of the challenges they pose, as understood by key international experts and players in the field. It also gives an important and original perspective on interpreting climate action and provides compelling evidence of the weakness of arguments that frame climate policy as a win-or-lose situation. Read more
European Research on Sustainable Development
by Carlo C. Jaeger, J. David Tàbara and Julia Jaeger
Volume 1: Transformative Science Approaches for Sustainability
This book provides the reader with a state-of-the-art view of research on sustainable development. Its emphasis lies on the transformative dimension of this research: sustainable development can only be realized through a far-reaching transformation of the situation humankind finds itself in at the beginning of the third millennium. Read more