Publications
April 7, 2020
The effectiveness of setback zones for adapting to sea-level rise in Croatia
The Mediterranean coastal zone is particularly vulnerable to climate-induced sea-level rise due to rapid coastal development, leading to increased flood exposure in coastal areas. In Croatia, the share of developed coastline is still lower than in other Mediterranean countries, but development has accelerated since the 1960s. Available assessments of future coastal flood risk take into […]
March 25, 2020
Responding to Sea Level Rise
The scale of the SLR challenge is immense and strong mitigation efforts are needed to avoid multiple meters of SLR within the next few centuries, which will be unmanageable for many coastal regions of the world. But even with such efforts, sea levels will continue to rise for decades and centuries to come. Thus coastal […]
March 9, 2020
The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation
Climate change adaptation investment decisions can be made more efficiently if uncertainty and new information are considered in their economic appraisal. Real options analysis (ROA) is a robust decision-making tool that allows for the incorporation of both uncertainty and new information. In this opinion article, we argue that ROA is a valuable tool, providing the […]
June 4, 2019
New Essay on Extended Evolutionary Dynamics in the Technosphere by GCF’s Co-Chairman Manfred Laubichler
By going through the transitions in cell evolution and energy regimes, evolutionary biologist Manfred Laubichler explains the dynamics behind the formation of the metabolic activity and complexity of our planet...
April 16, 2019
Meeting User Needs for Sea Level Rise Information: A Decision Analysis Perspective
Despite widespread efforts to implement climate services, there is almost no literature that systematically analyzes users’ needs. This paper addresses this gap by applying a decision analysis perspective to identify what kind of mean sea level rise (SLR) information is needed for local coastal adaptation decisions. We first characterize these decisions, then identify suitable decision […]
January 18, 2019
Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?
For the long-term management of coastal flood risks, investment and policy strategies need to be developed in the light of the full range of uncertainties associated with mean sea-level rise (SLR). This, however, remains a challenge due to deep uncertainties involved in SLR assessments, many ways of representing uncertainties, and a lack of common terminology […]
January 7, 2019
An agent-based modeling for housing prices with bounded rationality
This study proposes an agent-based model to investigate major stakeholders behaviors in the housing market. The proposed model mimics the heterogeneous behaviors of individual buyers and sellers in a housing market considering bounded rationality. The simulation results of case study in Shanghai are robust and reproduce stylized facts including as volatility clustering, absence of autocorrelations, […]
December 14, 2018
Investors’ Signals for 2°C
The targets of the Paris Agreement make it necessary to redirect finance flows towards sustainable, low-carbon infrastructures and technologies. Currently, the potential of institutional investors to help finance this transition is widely discussed. Thus, this paper takes a closer look at influence factors for green investment decisions of large European insurance companies. With a mix […]
December 14, 2018
ICT and Climate: A Digital Structure for the Energy Transition
The Global Climate Forum and Fraunhofer IEE have published a perspective on a digital structure of the energy transition in the journal “GAIA – Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society”. The work described in the article is conducted within the Kopernikus project ENavi which develops a navigation system that helps to identify and tackle critical […]
September 24, 2018
New paper by K. Lucas, O. Renn, C. Jaeger and S. Yang: “Systemic Risks: A Homomorphic Approach on the Basis of Complexity Science”
Klaus Lucas, Ortwin Renn, Carlo Jaeger and Saini Yang build on a domain-overarching definition of systemic risks by highlighting crucial properties that distinguish them from conventional risks and plain disasters. They place emphasis on the role of complexity science as a basis for unifying the phenomena of systemic risks in widely different domains. Published in […]