Adaptation and Social Learning

DECIsion-making framework and Processes for Holistic Evaluation of enviRonmental and climate policies

DECIPHER

DECIPHER employs a systems and multi-disciplinary approach using a diverse set of models, methods, and processes to significantly improve decision-making on climate change and biodiversity and enhance policy resilience and feasibility. Moving beyond state-ofthe- art, we will establish a holistic and operational decision-making framework that integrates advanced economic and biophysical models, empirical methods and stakeholder participation tools. The novel framework incorporates environmental damages in the economic decisions of agents and introduces a risk-opportunity approach for decision making. To offer critical insights on system dynamics and risks, the models developed will be equipped with innovative features including improved representations of agent behavior, technology innovation, financial risk valuation and the capacity to assess extreme events and critical tipping points. The new decision-making framework will be the end-result of an iterative co-creation process with stakeholders and applied under realworld conditions in the assessment of flagship EU policies.

‍

Objectives

Build an iterative knowledge co-creation process for more transparent, inclusive and representative policy design and evaluation.
Gain an advanced understanding of the factors and dynamics that shape policy and political decision-making on climate and the environment through a social science lens.
Develop a new generation of enhanced state-of-the-art economic models that establish feedback loops with physical system models, embed systemic risks and uncertainty and capture behavioural and knowledge dynamics and socio-ecological system complexity.
Operationalise a novel decision-making framework having risk, resilience, and opportunity at its core.
Perform a real-world, stakeholder-led assessment of the design and implementation of overarching EU policies.
Revisit decision-making tools as black boxes by promoting open access and reproducibility

‍